October 13, 2015

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 6.09 3.04 3.00
Western Province 5.08 4.93 0.10
Blue Bulls 1.98 0.17 1.80
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.40 -1.75 -0.70
Pumas -6.66 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.36 -7.81 -1.60
Kings -10.14 -9.44 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 09 24 – 25 -5.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Kings Oct 09 45 – 14 18.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 10 29 – 19 19.50 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Oct 10 34 – 34 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 16 Blue Bulls 0.40
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 17 Lions 12.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »