ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taranaki | 12.77 | 7.70 | 5.10 |
| Canterbury | 12.56 | 10.90 | 1.70 |
| Tasman | 8.40 | 12.86 | -4.50 |
| Auckland | 8.30 | 5.14 | 3.20 |
| Wellington | 4.76 | -4.62 | 9.40 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.14 | -0.57 | 4.70 |
| Counties Manukau | 4.05 | 7.86 | -3.80 |
| Otago | 1.46 | -4.84 | 6.30 |
| Waikato | -6.41 | -6.96 | 0.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | -6.46 | -9.77 | 3.30 |
| Manawatu | -8.81 | -1.52 | -7.30 |
| North Harbour | -9.59 | -10.54 | 0.90 |
| Southland | -10.77 | -6.01 | -4.80 |
| Northland | -18.37 | -3.64 | -14.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 30 | 22 – 22 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Otago | Oct 01 | 32 – 39 | -7.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 02 | 9 – 30 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Canterbury | Oct 03 | 25 – 41 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Taranaki | Oct 03 | 10 – 44 | -14.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Auckland vs. Northland | Oct 03 | 64 – 21 | 28.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 04 | 28 – 35 | -11.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | 13 – 31 | -5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Otago | Oct 07 | Otago | -15.80 |
| 2 | Taranaki vs. Tasman | Oct 08 | Taranaki | 8.40 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato | Oct 09 | Hawke’s Bay | 14.60 |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Oct 10 | Canterbury | 27.30 |
| 5 | Wellington vs. Manawatu | Oct 10 | Wellington | 17.60 |
| 6 | Counties Manukau vs. Auckland | Oct 10 | Auckland | -0.30 |
| 7 | North Harbour vs. Northland | Oct 11 | North Harbour | 12.80 |
| 8 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 11 | Otago | 11.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »