Posts from September 2015 (45)

September 7, 2015

Stat of the Week Competition: September 5 – 11 2015

By

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday September 11 2015.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of September 5 – 11 2015 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: September 5 – 11 2015

By

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

September 2, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 26

By

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.92 9.09 2.80
Broncos 10.03 4.03 6.00
Cowboys 6.63 9.52 -2.90
Storm 4.13 4.36 -0.20
Bulldogs 3.68 0.21 3.50
Rabbitohs 1.96 13.06 -11.10
Sea Eagles 0.13 2.68 -2.50
Dragons 0.00 -1.74 1.70
Sharks -0.38 -10.76 10.40
Raiders -1.40 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -3.79 3.69 -7.50
Knights -4.46 -0.28 -4.20
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -5.65 -13.13 7.50
Warriors -8.32 3.07 -11.40
Titans -8.35 -8.20 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 12 – 47 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 10 – 46 -4.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 28 – 35 -0.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 18 – 20 -5.70 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 14 – 6 -0.80 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 50 – 16 2.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 28 – 26 -6.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 34 – 18 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 Broncos 8.90
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 13.00
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 Panthers 3.70
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Dragons 8.60
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 Cowboys 18.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 Raiders -0.40
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Sharks 2.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 Bulldogs 16.00

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.47 12.86 -0.40
Canterbury 11.16 10.90 0.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.63 -0.57 6.20
Auckland 4.43 5.14 -0.70
Counties Manukau 4.14 7.86 -3.70
Taranaki 3.43 7.70 -4.30
Wellington 2.36 -4.62 7.00
Manawatu -2.13 -1.52 -0.60
Waikato -2.17 -6.96 4.80
Otago -4.30 -4.84 0.50
Southland -6.95 -6.01 -0.90
Northland -8.33 -3.64 -4.70
Bay of Plenty -10.56 -9.77 -0.80
North Harbour -13.18 -10.54 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 26 26 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
2 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 27 41 – 21 18.30 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 11 – 35 8.30 FALSE
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 29 21 – 27 -2.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 29 27 – 34 15.80 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 29 29 – 0 11.50 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 30 10 – 43 0.40 FALSE
8 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 30 25 – 26 14.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 3.30
2 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 03 Canterbury -9.30
3 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 04 Tasman -12.80
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Sep 05 Auckland -2.60
5 Southland vs. Wellington Sep 05 Wellington -5.30
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 05 Hawke’s Bay 22.80
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 06 Taranaki -7.80
8 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 06 Counties Manukau 18.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 4.79 3.04 1.70
Western Province 4.32 4.93 -0.60
Sharks 2.12 3.43 -1.30
Blue Bulls 2.05 0.17 1.90
Cheetahs -1.53 -1.75 0.20
Pumas -6.70 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.29 -7.81 -1.50
Kings -9.66 -9.44 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 11 – 41 -6.90 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 28 – 21 -2.90 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 32 – 46 -7.20 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 20 – 24 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 04 Blue Bulls 7.10
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 05 Sharks 12.30
3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 05 Western Province 17.10
4 Lions vs. Kings Sep 05 Lions 18.00

 

« Later posts