Rugby World Cup Predictions, 25 September 2015 to 27 September 2015
I decided updated ratings and predictions would be a good idea at this time. I can then post new predictions before the next games after September 27, which are on September 29.
Team Ratings at 25 September
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to 25 September along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.
| Rating at 25 September | Rating at RWC Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 27.38 | 29.01 | -1.60 |
| South Africa | 21.15 | 22.73 | -1.60 |
| Australia | 19.83 | 20.36 | -0.50 |
| Ireland | 18.15 | 17.48 | 0.70 |
| England | 18.04 | 18.51 | -0.50 |
| Wales | 13.35 | 13.93 | -0.60 |
| France | 11.53 | 11.70 | -0.20 |
| Argentina | 8.02 | 7.38 | 0.60 |
| Scotland | 5.85 | 4.84 | 1.00 |
| Samoa | -2.71 | -2.28 | -0.40 |
| Fiji | -3.23 | -4.23 | 1.00 |
| Italy | -6.26 | -5.86 | -0.40 |
| Tonga | -7.23 | -6.31 | -0.90 |
| Japan | -10.61 | -11.18 | 0.60 |
| USA | -15.54 | -15.97 | 0.40 |
| Georgia | -16.56 | -17.48 | 0.90 |
| Canada | -18.73 | -18.06 | -0.70 |
| Romania | -20.63 | -21.20 | 0.60 |
| Uruguay | -30.46 | -31.04 | 0.60 |
| Namibia | -34.63 | -35.62 | 1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England vs. Fiji | Sep 18 | 35 – 11 | 29.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Tonga vs. Georgia | Sep 19 | 10 – 17 | 11.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ireland vs. Canada | Sep 19 | 50 – 7 | 35.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | South Africa vs. Japan | Sep 19 | 32 – 34 | 33.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | France vs. Italy | Sep 19 | 32 – 10 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Samoa vs. USA | Sep 20 | 25 – 16 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wales vs. Uruguay | Sep 20 | 54 – 9 | 51.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | New Zealand vs. Argentina | Sep 20 | 26 – 16 | 21.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Scotland vs. Japan | Sep 23 | 45 – 10 | 14.40 | TRUE |
| 10 | Australia vs. Fiji | Sep 23 | 28 – 13 | 24.10 | TRUE |
| 11 | France vs. Romania | Sep 23 | 38 – 11 | 33.30 | TRUE |
| 12 | New Zealand vs. Namibia | Sep 24 | 58 – 14 | 64.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for 25 September to 27 September
The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina vs. Georgia | Sep 25 | Argentina | 24.60 |
| 2 | Italy vs. Canada | Sep 26 | Italy | 12.50 |
| 3 | South Africa vs. Samoa | Sep 26 | South Africa | 23.90 |
| 4 | England vs. Wales | Sep 26 | England | 11.20 |
| 5 | Australia vs. Uruguay | Sep 27 | Australia | 50.30 |
| 6 | Scotland vs. USA | Sep 27 | Scotland | 21.40 |
| 7 | Ireland vs. Romania | Sep 27 | Ireland | 38.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »