September 23, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.67 10.90 2.80
Tasman 11.53 12.86 -1.30
Taranaki 10.21 7.70 2.50
Auckland 7.35 5.14 2.20
Hawke’s Bay 3.83 -0.57 4.40
Wellington 3.66 -4.62 8.30
Counties Manukau 1.06 7.86 -6.80
Otago -2.63 -4.84 2.20
Waikato -6.67 -6.96 0.30
Southland -7.11 -6.01 -1.10
Manawatu -7.82 -1.52 -6.30
Bay of Plenty -7.94 -9.77 1.80
North Harbour -8.78 -10.54 1.80
Northland -14.35 -3.64 -10.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Sep 16 39 – 20 29.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Otago Sep 17 36 – 37 12.80 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 18 41 – 0 16.50 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 23 – 17 17.90 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 19 49 – 14 -1.90 FALSE
6 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 19 17 – 42 -8.40 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 20 10 – 17 -21.90 TRUE
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 20 19 – 28 12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 23 Canterbury 24.30
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 24 Hawke’s Bay 0.50
3 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 Bay of Plenty -2.40
4 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Sep 26 Tasman -6.50
5 Otago vs. Southland Sep 26 Otago 8.50
6 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 26 Manawatu 5.00
7 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -6.30
8 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 27 Canterbury 7.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »