August 19, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.08 9.09 1.00
Broncos 7.44 4.03 3.40
Rabbitohs 5.66 13.06 -7.40
Storm 5.48 4.36 1.10
Cowboys 5.34 9.52 -4.20
Sea Eagles 3.34 2.68 0.70
Bulldogs 2.58 0.21 2.40
Dragons 0.57 -1.74 2.30
Raiders -0.71 -7.09 6.40
Sharks -1.84 -10.76 8.90
Panthers -2.87 3.69 -6.60
Warriors -4.28 3.07 -7.40
Eels -5.42 -7.19 1.80
Knights -6.71 -0.28 -6.40
Wests Tigers -6.79 -13.13 6.30
Titans -10.53 -8.20 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 18 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 14 32 – 6 7.30 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 15 18 – 24 4.40 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 15 24 – 10 4.00 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 15 28 – 18 19.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 36 – 26 -2.90 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 16 36 – 14 15.10 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Aug 17 2 – 30 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 20 Dragons 6.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 21 Rabbitohs 6.10
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Aug 22 Sharks 7.90
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Aug 22 Cowboys -5.60
5 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 22 Roosters 5.60
6 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 23 Raiders -6.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 23 Sea Eagles 11.80
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 24 Storm 15.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »