NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10.93 | 9.09 | 1.80 |
| Broncos | 9.29 | 4.03 | 5.30 |
| Cowboys | 8.18 | 9.52 | -1.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.42 | 13.06 | -6.60 |
| Storm | 5.12 | 4.36 | 0.80 |
| Bulldogs | 1.11 | 0.21 | 0.90 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.49 | 2.68 | -2.20 |
| Warriors | -0.22 | 3.07 | -3.30 |
| Raiders | -1.16 | -7.09 | 5.90 |
| Dragons | -1.80 | -1.74 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | -1.93 | -10.76 | 8.80 |
| Panthers | -3.77 | 3.69 | -7.50 |
| Eels | -5.78 | -7.19 | 1.40 |
| Knights | -6.37 | -0.28 | -6.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.78 | -13.13 | 4.30 |
| Titans | -10.39 | -8.20 | -2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Titans | Jul 24 | 34 – 0 | 20.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Jul 24 | 8 – 33 | -15.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Jul 25 | 52 – 6 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Dragons | Jul 25 | 22 – 4 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 25 | 12 – 32 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jul 26 | 16 – 18 | 7.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Jul 26 | 24 – 34 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Jul 27 | 46 – 4 | 13.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Jul 31 | Roosters | 12.80 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Jul 31 | Storm | -10.90 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Aug 01 | Warriors | 5.70 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Aug 01 | Cowboys | 12.30 |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | Aug 01 | Broncos | -5.80 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Knights | Aug 02 | Dragons | 7.60 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | Aug 02 | Rabbitohs | 13.20 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Eels | Aug 03 | Eels | -1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
David, what is the Prediction for Round 21, Manly vs Brisbane, Sat. (1/8) 7.30 pm? – reg.
9 years ago
Updated now. Sorry for the missed game. I entered the game details game by game because the fixtures released at the beginning of the season only went till round 20. I need to enter all the remaining games now but am overseas until next week.
9 years ago