Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals
Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals: Correction
I made a mistake in entering the fixtures and had the Waratahs playing away.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 10.77 | 10.42 | 0.40 |
| Hurricanes | 8.31 | 2.89 | 5.40 |
| Waratahs | 7.48 | 10.00 | -2.50 |
| Highlanders | 5.62 | -2.54 | 8.20 |
| Brumbies | 5.03 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| Chiefs | 3.58 | 2.23 | 1.40 |
| Stormers | 0.47 | 1.68 | -1.20 |
| Bulls | 0.39 | 2.88 | -2.50 |
| Lions | -0.55 | -3.39 | 2.80 |
| Sharks | -0.65 | 3.91 | -4.60 |
| Blues | -4.49 | 1.44 | -5.90 |
| Rebels | -4.89 | -9.53 | 4.60 |
| Force | -7.16 | -4.67 | -2.50 |
| Cheetahs | -8.22 | -5.55 | -2.70 |
| Reds | -8.70 | -4.98 | -3.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Jun 20 | 24 – 14 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Stormers vs. Brumbies | Jun 20 | 19 – 39 | 2.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Qualifying Finals
Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Jun 27 | Hurricanes | 7.80 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Jun 27 | Waratahs | 6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Shouldn’t the Waratahs be at home? Would the home ground advantage change the prediction?
10 years ago
Sorry I see it’s already corrected on the site.
10 years ago
Interested in how the current Team rating table works in respect to the Crusaders still having a clear margin at the top but not featuring in the Semi Finals…
10 years ago
I have answered this in a reply today to another reader
9 years ago
NRL performance so far into 2015 Season after 110 games played:
55 home team wins, 55 away team wins. How curiously extraordinary!
Predictions in this space number 62 true, and 48 false — or 56.3 per cent true.
Do teeter-totter results improve the Code in the long run, by promoting more excitement around the grounds, as NRL commentators are saying? We’ve certainly witnessed remarkable club upset wins, together with spectacular individual artistry
taken to new heights.
10 years ago