June 17, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.29 -2.54 7.80
Chiefs 3.91 2.23 1.70
Brumbies 3.76 2.20 1.60
Stormers 1.74 1.68 0.10
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 12 7 – 44 -2.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Force Jun 12 11 – 13 7.50 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Jun 13 24 – 37 -1.00 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 13 – 21 0.70 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Jun 13 31 – 5 19.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 13 29 – 42 15.70 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers Jun 13 34 – 12 -1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 Highlanders 5.40
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 Stormers 2.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Graeme Smith

    Lots to comment about this. You have to feel sorry for the Crusaders, top of your rankings, 6th on points and probably the form team with the Hurricanes coming into the finals, but they will miss out by a point.

    My Aussie teams, two in the top six, and the rest at the foot of your ladder, as opposed to the SA teams, basically all bunched in the middle of the ladder. Needless to say, except for the Blues, the Kiwi teams are all in the top 6.

    10 years ago