NRL Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8.66 | 9.09 | -0.40 |
| Broncos | 6.79 | 4.03 | 2.80 |
| Cowboys | 6.35 | 9.52 | -3.20 |
| Storm | 4.20 | 4.36 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.88 | 13.06 | -9.20 |
| Dragons | 2.70 | -1.74 | 4.40 |
| Warriors | -0.88 | 3.07 | -4.00 |
| Raiders | -1.36 | -7.09 | 5.70 |
| Panthers | -1.40 | 3.69 | -5.10 |
| Bulldogs | -1.51 | 0.21 | -1.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.17 | 2.68 | -5.80 |
| Eels | -3.44 | -7.19 | 3.70 |
| Knights | -3.94 | -0.28 | -3.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.78 | -13.13 | 8.30 |
| Titans | -4.86 | -8.20 | 3.30 |
| Sharks | -5.92 | -10.76 | 4.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 103 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 12 | 34 – 6 | -10.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Jun 13 | 21 – 25 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | Jun 14 | 28 – 14 | -2.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Eels | Jun 15 | 22 – 26 | 13.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 19 | Sea Eagles | 4.60 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Jun 20 | Bulldogs | 2.90 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jun 20 | Cowboys | -4.70 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Jun 20 | Titans | 0.00 |
| 5 | Knights vs. Sharks | Jun 21 | Knights | 5.00 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Broncos | Jun 21 | Storm | 0.40 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Jun 22 | Roosters | -3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »