Super 15 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 10.03 | 10.42 | -0.40 |
| Hurricanes | 7.74 | 2.89 | 4.80 |
| Waratahs | 7.03 | 10.00 | -3.00 |
| Brumbies | 4.50 | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Chiefs | 4.48 | 2.23 | 2.30 |
| Highlanders | 3.45 | -2.54 | 6.00 |
| Stormers | 3.03 | 1.68 | 1.30 |
| Bulls | 1.96 | 2.88 | -0.90 |
| Lions | -0.55 | -3.39 | 2.80 |
| Sharks | -1.94 | 3.91 | -5.90 |
| Blues | -2.65 | 1.44 | -4.10 |
| Rebels | -4.28 | -9.53 | 5.20 |
| Force | -7.77 | -4.67 | -3.10 |
| Reds | -8.25 | -4.98 | -3.30 |
| Cheetahs | -9.79 | -5.55 | -4.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | Jun 05 | 56 – 20 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Force vs. Brumbies | Jun 05 | 20 – 33 | -7.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rebels vs. Bulls | Jun 06 | 21 – 20 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Jun 06 | 11 – 34 | -6.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Chiefs | Jun 06 | 3 – 24 | -6.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Waratahs | Jun 06 | 33 – 58 | -10.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Lions | Jun 06 | 19 – 19 | 8.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Jun 12 | Highlanders | -2.10 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Force | Jun 12 | Rebels | 7.50 |
| 3 | Brumbies vs. Crusaders | Jun 13 | Crusaders | -1.00 |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Jun 13 | Chiefs | 0.70 |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Jun 13 | Waratahs | 19.30 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Cheetahs | Jun 13 | Bulls | 15.70 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Jun 13 | Stormers | -1.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »