June 10, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.81 9.09 -0.30
Broncos 6.79 4.03 2.80
Rabbitohs 6.46 13.06 -6.60
Cowboys 6.35 9.52 -3.20
Storm 5.38 4.36 1.00
Dragons 2.70 -1.74 4.40
Bulldogs -0.35 0.21 -0.60
Warriors -1.02 3.07 -4.10
Raiders -1.36 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -1.40 3.69 -5.10
Sea Eagles -3.17 2.68 -5.80
Knights -3.94 -0.28 -3.70
Eels -4.62 -7.19 2.60
Sharks -5.92 -10.76 4.80
Titans -6.02 -8.20 2.20
Wests Tigers -7.37 -13.13 5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 44 – 10 9.60 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 05 20 – 27 3.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 06 22 – 44 3.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 06 0 – 20 -1.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 06 36 – 4 8.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Jun 07 10 – 4 -14.60 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 08 29 – 16 -2.20 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 08 30 – 36 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 12 Rabbitohs -10.80
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 13 Roosters -5.80
3 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 Bulldogs -2.70
4 Storm vs. Eels Jun 15 Storm 13.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »