NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 9.18 | 9.09 | 0.10 |
| Cowboys | 7.37 | 9.52 | -2.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.05 | 13.06 | -7.00 |
| Storm | 5.13 | 4.36 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | 3.81 | 4.03 | -0.20 |
| Dragons | 2.04 | -1.74 | 3.80 |
| Panthers | 1.01 | 3.69 | -2.70 |
| Warriors | 0.85 | 3.07 | -2.20 |
| Knights | -1.67 | -0.28 | -1.40 |
| Raiders | -1.82 | -7.09 | 5.30 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.10 | 2.68 | -4.80 |
| Bulldogs | -2.14 | 0.21 | -2.30 |
| Sharks | -5.61 | -10.76 | 5.10 |
| Eels | -6.88 | -7.19 | 0.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.90 | -13.13 | 6.20 |
| Titans | -6.97 | -8.20 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | May 15 | 10 – 24 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | May 15 | 31 – 20 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Warriors | May 16 | 13 – 17 | -3.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | May 16 | 16 – 12 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Sharks | May 16 | 22 – 23 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Raiders | May 17 | 32 – 18 | 5.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | May 17 | 22 – 12 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | May 18 | 10 – 11 | 0.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | May 22 | Rabbitohs | 15.90 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 23 | Cowboys | -11.30 |
| 3 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | May 24 | Raiders | 3.30 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Broncos | May 25 | Broncos | -2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi
Looking at your Knights v Broncos prediction – doesn’t look like you’ve factor in State of Origin taking a lot of first team players out of the Broncos team….. at least looking at your prediction v TAB and other Betting Agencies which have the Broncs big underdogs….
9 years ago
I’ve jumped on Brisbane -3.5 @ $3.80. Newcastle has a harder forward pack here but Brisbane’s spine is solid with hungry backs. This will go close, Broncos very solid record vs Newcastle also.
9 years ago
Good luck with that James. My picks in the League have been way way off this weekend!
9 years ago
So, a win to Brisbane and not even close. The randomness of sport. Looks like I got 3 out of 4 this weekend.
9 years ago
Well done Mr Scott….. maybe you should be a bookie, as they must have taken a bit of a bath with Bulldogs, North Queensland and Brisbane not favoured by them to win…
9 years ago