May 6, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.73 10.42 -2.70
Waratahs 6.87 10.00 -3.10
Hurricanes 5.98 2.89 3.10
Chiefs 4.32 2.23 2.10
Brumbies 3.36 2.20 1.20
Bulls 3.04 2.88 0.20
Stormers 2.60 1.68 0.90
Highlanders 2.09 -2.54 4.60
Blues 0.43 1.44 -1.00
Sharks -2.00 3.91 -5.90
Lions -2.83 -3.39 0.60
Rebels -4.66 -9.53 4.90
Cheetahs -5.64 -5.55 -0.10
Force -5.74 -4.67 -1.10
Reds -8.56 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 01 48 – 15 5.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 01 10 – 13 1.10 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Force May 02 41 – 24 9.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders May 02 29 – 23 1.60 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 02 16 – 15 -5.30 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers May 02 25 – 17 -5.90 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 02 35 – 33 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 08 Crusaders 20.80
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 08 Blues -0.60
3 Hurricanes vs. Sharks May 09 Hurricanes 12.50
4 Force vs. Waratahs May 09 Waratahs -8.60
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 09 Highlanders -0.40
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies May 09 Stormers 3.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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