Super 15 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 7.84 | 10.42 | -2.60 |
| Waratahs | 7.50 | 10.00 | -2.50 |
| Chiefs | 5.25 | 2.23 | 3.00 |
| Hurricanes | 5.18 | 2.89 | 2.30 |
| Stormers | 3.64 | 1.68 | 2.00 |
| Bulls | 3.43 | 2.88 | 0.60 |
| Brumbies | 3.22 | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Highlanders | 1.02 | -2.54 | 3.60 |
| Blues | 0.15 | 1.44 | -1.30 |
| Sharks | -0.50 | 3.91 | -4.40 |
| Lions | -3.19 | -3.39 | 0.20 |
| Force | -5.75 | -4.67 | -1.10 |
| Rebels | -6.02 | -9.53 | 3.50 |
| Cheetahs | -6.71 | -5.55 | -1.20 |
| Reds | -8.08 | -4.98 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 66 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Apr 17 | 9 – 26 | 9.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Apr 18 | 24 – 29 | 3.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Apr 18 | 30 – 24 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Apr 18 | 8 – 13 | 15.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Force vs. Stormers | Apr 18 | 6 – 13 | -4.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Apr 18 | 10 – 17 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Reds | Apr 18 | 17 – 18 | 6.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Force | Apr 24 | Chiefs | 15.50 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Apr 24 | Brumbies | 6.70 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Apr 25 | Crusaders | 11.70 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Apr 25 | Waratahs | 17.50 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Apr 25 | Lions | 7.50 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Apr 25 | Stormers | 4.20 |
| 7 | Reds vs. Hurricanes | Apr 26 | Hurricanes | -8.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Bit of a tough week with the super rugby stats last week Why does the start point not appear to change every week. It is quite different from the formal super rugby website stats..
10 years ago