Super 15 Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.30 | 10.42 | -1.10 |
| Waratahs | 6.96 | 10.00 | -3.00 |
| Hurricanes | 5.72 | 2.89 | 2.80 |
| Brumbies | 4.40 | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Chiefs | 3.79 | 2.23 | 1.60 |
| Stormers | 3.41 | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| Bulls | 2.89 | 2.88 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 0.90 | -2.54 | 3.40 |
| Blues | 0.27 | 1.44 | -1.20 |
| Sharks | 0.04 | 3.91 | -3.90 |
| Lions | -3.19 | -3.39 | 0.20 |
| Force | -5.51 | -4.67 | -0.80 |
| Cheetahs | -6.18 | -5.55 | -0.60 |
| Rebels | -7.20 | -9.53 | 2.30 |
| Reds | -8.60 | -4.98 | -3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 59 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Brumbies | Apr 10 | 16 – 14 | 0.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Apr 11 | 20 – 25 | 14.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Waratahs vs. Stormers | Apr 11 | 18 – 32 | 10.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Force vs. Cheetahs | Apr 11 | 15 – 24 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Reds | Apr 11 | 43 – 22 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 11 | 23 – 21 | 0.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Apr 17 | Crusaders | 9.50 |
| 2 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Apr 18 | Hurricanes | 3.30 |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Apr 18 | Highlanders | 4.60 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Apr 18 | Brumbies | 15.60 |
| 5 | Force vs. Stormers | Apr 18 | Stormers | -4.40 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Apr 18 | Sharks | 1.10 |
| 7 | Cheetahs vs. Reds | Apr 18 | Cheetahs | 6.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Super 15 and Rugby League have completed Rounds 10 and 7 respectively. Top Super 15 teams tanked 4 out of 8 home games in Rounds 8,9 and 10, where they had super statistical margins.
All Rugby League teams tanked 29 of the 56 games played so far (48.2%) in 2015, where teams had any statistical margin, ranging from small to superlative.
I must confess I am confused. Maybe clubs and players in these codes don’t think statistically, or maybe they do — and just march to a different drummer?
10 years ago
In both codes, there seem to have been a lot of results which could be classed as upsets, and a lot of form changes. Reds hopeless but win away from home in South Africa, Crusaders thrash Sharks away then lose the next two games at home, Rebels beat Brumbies away, Cowboys lose first 3 then have good wins, Knights have four wins (two away from home) then lose three. I could go on.
10 years ago
Correction: All Rugby League teams tanked 27 of the 56 games played so far (48.2%) in 2015 [et cetera].
10 years ago