April 8, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.43 10.42 0.00
Waratahs 8.34 10.00 -1.70
Hurricanes 5.72 2.89 2.80
Brumbies 4.58 2.20 2.40
Chiefs 3.79 2.23 1.60
Bulls 2.49 2.88 -0.40
Stormers 2.03 1.68 0.30
Sharks 0.17 3.91 -3.70
Blues 0.09 1.44 -1.30
Highlanders -0.23 -2.54 2.30
Lions -3.32 -3.39 0.10
Force -4.56 -4.67 0.10
Cheetahs -7.14 -5.55 -1.60
Rebels -7.20 -9.53 2.30
Reds -8.20 -4.98 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 03 25 – 20 8.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 23 – 15 4.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 04 23 – 16 7.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Apr 04 20 – 3 16.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 04 10 – 52 -1.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 04 22 – 18 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Blues 0.00
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 11 Crusaders 14.70
3 Waratahs vs. Stormers Apr 11 Waratahs 10.80
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Apr 11 Force 7.10
5 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 11 Bulls 15.20
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 11 Lions 0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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