March 25, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 13.78 13.06 0.70
Roosters 10.81 9.09 1.70
Panthers 5.37 3.69 1.70
Cowboys 5.19 9.52 -4.30
Storm 4.43 4.36 0.10
Broncos 3.83 4.03 -0.20
Warriors 2.94 3.07 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.56 0.21 1.40
Knights 0.77 -0.28 1.00
Sea Eagles 0.01 2.68 -2.70
Dragons -3.71 -1.74 -2.00
Eels -5.62 -7.19 1.60
Raiders -7.45 -7.09 -0.40
Wests Tigers -9.74 -13.13 3.40
Titans -10.02 -8.20 -1.80
Sharks -10.80 -10.76 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 20 44 – 22 -1.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 20 12 – 16 2.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Mar 21 20 – 22 -0.50 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sharks Mar 21 36 – 18 18.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Eels Mar 21 29 – 16 12.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 20 – 6 28.60 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 18 – 20 -8.80 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 12 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Mar 27 Rabbitohs -16.40
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Bulldogs -8.30
3 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 Sea Eagles -0.70
4 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 28 Sharks 2.20
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 29 Roosters 21.30
7 Warriors vs. Broncos Mar 29 Warriors 3.10
8 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 30 Cowboys 3.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar

    Hi, i need your help can you pls send me the nrl prediction round 4 tips draw to me?
    Am waitng for your respose.
    Cheers!,

    10 years ago