March 4, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 8.16 10.00 -1.80
Crusaders 7.07 10.42 -3.30
Hurricanes 5.52 2.89 2.60
Chiefs 4.08 2.23 1.90
Brumbies 3.84 2.20 1.60
Sharks 2.81 3.91 -1.10
Stormers 2.80 1.68 1.10
Bulls 1.82 2.88 -1.10
Blues 0.43 1.44 -1.00
Highlanders -2.53 -2.54 0.00
Cheetahs -4.29 -5.55 1.30
Lions -4.33 -3.39 -0.90
Force -5.17 -4.67 -0.50
Reds -5.91 -4.98 -0.90
Rebels -7.29 -9.53 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 27 20 – 13 8.10 TRUE
2 Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 13 – 42 -3.40 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Feb 27 25 – 24 -0.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 40 – 16 -1.80 FALSE
5 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 28 15 – 20 -7.60 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 28 43 – 35 2.20 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 28 19 – 20 -3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 06 Chiefs 10.60
2 Brumbies vs. Force Mar 06 Brumbies 13.00
3 Blues vs. Lions Mar 07 Blues 9.30
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 07 Waratahs -10.10
5 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 07 Bulls -2.10
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 07 Stormers 4.00

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »