Super 15 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.60 | 10.42 | -1.80 |
| Waratahs | 8.35 | 10.00 | -1.60 |
| Brumbies | 3.95 | 2.20 | 1.70 |
| Hurricanes | 3.65 | 2.89 | 0.80 |
| Sharks | 2.79 | 3.91 | -1.10 |
| Chiefs | 2.77 | 2.23 | 0.50 |
| Stormers | 2.69 | 1.68 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | 1.87 | 2.88 | -1.00 |
| Blues | 0.90 | 1.44 | -0.50 |
| Highlanders | -2.54 | -2.54 | -0.00 |
| Force | -3.02 | -4.67 | 1.70 |
| Lions | -4.14 | -3.39 | -0.80 |
| Cheetahs | -4.42 | -5.55 | 1.10 |
| Reds | -6.73 | -4.98 | -1.70 |
| Rebels | -7.71 | -9.53 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 28.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Feb 13 | 10 – 20 | 24.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Feb 13 | 47 – 3 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Hurricanes | Feb 13 | 8 – 22 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Feb 14 | 18 – 23 | 3.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Feb 14 | 29 – 35 | 13.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Feb 14 | 17 – 29 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Force | Feb 15 | 13 – 25 | 18.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Brumbies | Feb 20 | Chiefs | 3.30 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Feb 20 | Waratahs | -12.10 |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Hurricanes | Feb 20 | Bulls | 2.70 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Crusaders | Feb 21 | Crusaders | -7.10 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Force | Feb 21 | Reds | 0.30 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Blues | Feb 21 | Stormers | 6.30 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Lions | Feb 21 | Sharks | 10.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, have followed your predictions for the last few super rugby competitions (I’m not a betting person but rather for social banter over advising who is or isn’t going to win) with good results.
Do you intend posting one for the up coming super rugby competition?
Many Thanks
Dave
9 years ago
Yes. I am intending to do predictions for Super Rugby again this year. I am aiming for next Wednesday, February 24 for my initial predictions.
9 years ago
Hello David,
Last year a few of us at work had a pool going for the RWC. It revived an interest in Rugby and statistics that I thought was dead and buried long ago. Put together a game model based on what I remember about Markov chains in a 300 level paper from 35 years ago and it worked quite well for the pool. Decided to develop it further for the Super Rugby year. It is interesting looking at the data from 1996 the impact of the changes in competition format, in the trens in home advantage, and in the character of different parts of a given season. All fascinating stuff, when your day job consists of tracking numbers in a retail chain. Looking forward to next Wednesday.
9 years ago