NRL Predictions for the Grand Final
Team Ratings for the Grand Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 11.81 | 5.82 | 6.00 |
| Cowboys | 9.46 | 6.01 | 3.40 |
| Roosters | 9.27 | 12.35 | -3.10 |
| Storm | 4.47 | 7.64 | -3.20 |
| Broncos | 3.86 | -4.69 | 8.50 |
| Panthers | 3.49 | -2.48 | 6.00 |
| Warriors | 2.82 | -0.72 | 3.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.78 | 9.10 | -6.30 |
| Bulldogs | 1.38 | 2.46 | -1.10 |
| Knights | -0.28 | 5.23 | -5.50 |
| Dragons | -2.10 | -7.57 | 5.50 |
| Raiders | -7.64 | -8.99 | 1.40 |
| Eels | -8.12 | -18.45 | 10.30 |
| Titans | -8.40 | 1.45 | -9.90 |
| Sharks | -10.92 | 2.32 | -13.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.68 | -11.26 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 200 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Sep 26 | 32 – 22 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Sep 27 | 12 – 18 | 4.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Grand Final
Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Oct 05 | Rabbitohs | 10.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Well. Numbers says Rabbitohs… But i fell like Bulldogs will be the champions this year.
They are one of the only team (with north queensland cowboys) who can match the rabbitohs. And recently, north queensland won in south sydney stadium…
Who will be the best predictionner ? Numbers (with a rate 58,5 this year) or my humble humain brain ?
10 years ago
sorry for this double-post in a row
welll … I forgotten an important word …
” They are one of the only team (with north queensland cowboys) who can match the rabbitohs. And recently, north queensland won in south sydney stadium… ”
can match PHYSICALLY the Rabbitoh.
Rabbitohs crushed the Roosters because of the physical density…
10 years ago
There are some interesting numbers for the Bulldogs. After someone pointed out I had only ranked them 9th best team but they are in the Grand Final, I had a look at the ladder. The Bulldogs finished 7th after the home and away series. Their points difference is just 7, where the Rabbitohs’ is 224. It is quite remarkable for them to get so far.
As for predictions, the NRL is very hard to predict, much more so than rugby in my experience. My Currie Cup predictions this year are running at 75% which would be sensational for the NRL. I am quite sanguine about getting the prediction for a single game wrong. That’s not what statistical methods are about.
10 years ago