Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 6.92 | 3.43 | 3.50 |
| Lions | 4.30 | 0.07 | 4.20 |
| Sharks | 3.44 | 5.09 | -1.60 |
| Cheetahs | -1.79 | 0.33 | -2.10 |
| Blue Bulls | -1.98 | -0.74 | -1.20 |
| Pumas | -6.17 | -10.00 | 3.80 |
| Griquas | -9.54 | -7.49 | -2.00 |
| Kings | -14.49 | -10.00 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls | Sep 26 | 23 – 31 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Lions | Sep 27 | 8 – 46 | -5.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Pumas vs. Western Province | Sep 26 | 23 – 37 | -7.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Kings | Sep 27 | 53 – 24 | 22.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griquas vs. Kings | Oct 04 | Griquas | 10.00 |
| 2 | Pumas vs. Blue Bulls | Oct 04 | Pumas | 0.80 |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Western Province | Oct 04 | Western Province | -3.70 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Lions | Oct 04 | Sharks | 4.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Dear David,
Will it be possible to get some stats for the Rugby sevens starting this weekend ? When we play superbru your stats help us to take away the emotion and the support for our team and focus on reality.
Regards
Willis
10 years ago
Sorry, I won’t be able to do the sevens.
10 years ago