September 2, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.62 12.35 -0.70
Rabbitohs 10.28 5.82 4.50
Cowboys 8.03 6.01 2.00
Storm 7.09 7.64 -0.50
Sea Eagles 4.77 9.10 -4.30
Broncos 4.50 -4.69 9.20
Warriors 4.09 -0.72 4.80
Panthers 1.92 -2.48 4.40
Dragons 0.35 -7.57 7.90
Bulldogs -2.68 2.46 -5.10
Knights -2.73 5.23 -8.00
Eels -7.17 -18.45 11.30
Raiders -8.58 -8.99 0.40
Titans -8.67 1.45 -10.10
Sharks -9.35 2.32 -11.70
Wests Tigers -15.25 -11.26 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 14 – 21 -8.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 22 8.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Eels Aug 30 42 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 27 – 12 10.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 30 24 – 12 8.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Titans Aug 31 42 – 0 12.20 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 31 26 – 25 8.90 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 01 20 – 19 26.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 5.80
2 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 05 Storm 7.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 06 Sharks -1.40
4 Raiders vs. Eels Sep 06 Raiders 3.10
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Cowboys 7.80
6 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 07 Knights 1.40
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 07 Bulldogs -1.50
8 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 2.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »