Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 5.39 | 3.43 | 2.00 |
| Sharks | 3.32 | 5.09 | -1.80 |
| Lions | 3.02 | 0.07 | 3.00 |
| Cheetahs | 0.25 | 0.33 | -0.10 |
| Blue Bulls | -3.53 | -0.74 | -2.80 |
| Pumas | -7.10 | -10.00 | 2.90 |
| Griquas | -8.55 | -7.49 | -1.10 |
| Kings | -12.12 | -10.00 | -2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Aug 29 | 32 – 22 | -7.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Cheetahs | Aug 30 | 25 – 36 | -2.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Western Province | Aug 30 | 18 – 23 | -3.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Kings vs. Lions | Aug 30 | 22 – 41 | -8.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Province vs. Kings | Sep 05 | Western Province | 22.50 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Pumas | Sep 06 | Cheetahs | 12.40 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Griquas | Sep 06 | Sharks | 16.90 |
| 4 | Blue Bulls vs. Lions | Sep 06 | Lions | -1.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »