NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.22 | 12.35 | -1.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 10.50 | 5.82 | 4.70 |
| Cowboys | 10.23 | 6.01 | 4.20 |
| Storm | 7.48 | 7.64 | -0.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.54 | 9.10 | -3.60 |
| Broncos | 4.60 | -4.69 | 9.30 |
| Warriors | 1.54 | -0.72 | 2.30 |
| Panthers | 1.15 | -2.48 | 3.60 |
| Dragons | 0.25 | -7.57 | 7.80 |
| Bulldogs | -2.89 | 2.46 | -5.40 |
| Knights | -4.94 | 5.23 | -10.20 |
| Eels | -4.96 | -18.45 | 13.50 |
| Titans | -6.12 | 1.45 | -7.60 |
| Raiders | -9.08 | -8.99 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | -11.55 | 2.32 | -13.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -14.75 | -11.26 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 176 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 21 | 30 – 10 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 22 | 22 – 12 | -9.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Knights | Aug 23 | 48 – 6 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Aug 23 | 10 – 22 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Aug 24 | 12 – 46 | 0.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 24 | 12 – 22 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 24 | 34 – 6 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Storm | Aug 25 | 10 – 24 | 0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 28 | Rabbitohs | -8.90 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Aug 29 | Broncos | 8.90 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Eels | Aug 30 | Knights | 4.50 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 30 | Raiders | 10.20 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Storm | Aug 30 | Roosters | 8.20 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Titans | Aug 31 | Warriors | 12.20 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Aug 31 | Sea Eagles | 8.90 |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Sep 01 | Cowboys | 26.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »