ITM Cup Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 19.69 | 18.09 | 1.60 |
| Tasman | 9.09 | 5.78 | 3.30 |
| Wellington | 8.20 | 10.16 | -2.00 |
| Auckland | 3.31 | 4.92 | -1.60 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.19 | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.75 | 2.75 | -1.00 |
| Waikato | 0.77 | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| Otago | -1.29 | -1.45 | 0.20 |
| Taranaki | -3.68 | -3.89 | 0.20 |
| Southland | -5.25 | -5.85 | 0.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | -8.38 | -5.47 | -2.90 |
| Northland | -9.09 | -8.22 | -0.90 |
| Manawatu | -9.45 | -10.32 | 0.90 |
| North Harbour | -9.93 | -9.77 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Southland | Aug 21 | 21 – 25 | -0.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Canterbury | Aug 22 | 27 – 58 | -14.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki | Aug 22 | 29 – 26 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Northland vs. Wellington | Aug 23 | 35 – 5 | -13.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Otago | Aug 23 | 29 – 25 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. Auckland | Aug 24 | 7 – 35 | -8.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman | Aug 24 | 27 – 56 | -8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Aug 27 | Waikato | 8.50 |
| 2 | Canterbury vs. Northland | Aug 28 | Canterbury | 32.80 |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Manawatu | Aug 29 | Wellington | 21.60 |
| 4 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 30 | Counties Manukau | 4.40 |
| 5 | Southland vs. Otago | Aug 30 | Southland | 0.00 |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Waikato | Aug 30 | Waikato | -6.70 |
| 7 | Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 31 | Taranaki | 8.70 |
| 8 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Aug 31 | Tasman | -1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Northland vs. Wellington, i couldn’t help but laugh when i knew in the mind that stats aside nothing could have picked that.
10 years ago
Sorry Got it now……
10 years ago