NRL Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | 12.31 | 5.82 | 6.50 |
Cowboys | 8.42 | 6.01 | 2.40 |
Roosters | 8.31 | 12.35 | -4.00 |
Sea Eagles | 7.28 | 9.10 | -1.80 |
Storm | 6.12 | 7.64 | -1.50 |
Warriors | 4.45 | -0.72 | 5.20 |
Panthers | 2.51 | -2.48 | 5.00 |
Broncos | 1.76 | -4.69 | 6.40 |
Dragons | -1.60 | -7.57 | 6.00 |
Knights | -2.10 | 5.23 | -7.30 |
Bulldogs | -3.37 | 2.46 | -5.80 |
Titans | -4.27 | 1.45 | -5.70 |
Eels | -6.70 | -18.45 | 11.80 |
Sharks | -10.20 | 2.32 | -12.50 |
Raiders | -10.43 | -8.99 | -1.40 |
Wests Tigers | -14.28 | -11.26 | -3.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | Aug 14 | 42 – 16 | 12.60 | TRUE |
2 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Aug 15 | 16 – 18 | 2.00 | FALSE |
3 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Aug 16 | 16 – 34 | -1.30 | TRUE |
4 | Storm vs. Sharks | Aug 16 | 48 – 6 | 16.40 | TRUE |
5 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Aug 16 | 4 – 48 | -12.80 | TRUE |
6 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 17 | 28 – 22 | -4.00 | FALSE |
7 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 17 | 12 – 15 | -8.10 | TRUE |
8 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Aug 18 | 23 – 22 | -2.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 21 | Bulldogs | 15.40 |
2 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 22 | Sea Eagles | -9.50 |
3 | Broncos vs. Knights | Aug 23 | Broncos | 8.40 |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | Aug 23 | Rabbitohs | 8.40 |
5 | Warriors vs. Roosters | Aug 24 | Warriors | 0.60 |
6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 24 | Sharks | 4.70 |
7 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 24 | Dragons | 7.20 |
8 | Panthers vs. Storm | Aug 25 | Panthers | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
You predicted the Sea Eagles to win by 8.10 pts, but they only won by 3. How is that prediction marked TRUE?
10 years ago
Because I predicted the Sea Eagles would win and they did. Do you think anyone can pretend to predict the exact margin? The predicted margin is there to give an idea of how likely the predicted result is. I could give a probability of the result being as predicted but I don’t.
10 years ago
Hello M.Scott. I’ve been reading your predictions for 1 month, and this is great job.
I can’t find your prediction for this week ITM cup round 3. Can you fix please ? (or link me as the answer if they are here and i was not able to find them) Thank you.
I feel like you should expect some surprises for NRL round 25 & 26 because people’s way to think are linked to real world and not stats… some teams could throw away the game because they are yet qualified for final phases and will give rest to some key players. And some team could intend to avoid to play their worst opponent and plan to throw away one game or two. So they could give errors and create some kind of noise making you think the mathematic model is not so good.
Why not removing round 25 & 26 to check wheter you get better rate of succes ?
10 years ago
I usually post my predictions on a Wednesday morning, but with the ITM Cup round starting on Wednesday evening each week, I will try and post on a Tuesday in future.
It is very difficult to accommodate perverse team behaviour into predictions and I don’t even try. The NRL is very hard to predict in any case, so it would be hard to know if unusual results in the last 2 rounds were due to attempted gaming of the system.
10 years ago
^ if i had of known this, i would have warned you earlier that Waikato vs Taranaki is being played Monday 27th at 7.35.
10 years ago
Huh? http://www.itmcup.co.nz/ says Waikato vs Taranaki is on August 27, which is today, Wednesday.
10 years ago
What is your prediction for the total points in the Roosters Storm game?
10 years ago
I don’t do predictions of total points sorry, only points difference.
10 years ago