ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 19.69 | 18.09 | 1.60 |
| Wellington | 8.20 | 10.16 | -2.00 |
| Tasman | 6.79 | 5.78 | 1.00 |
| Auckland | 3.31 | 4.92 | -1.60 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.19 | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 1.75 | 2.75 | -1.00 |
| Waikato | 0.77 | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| Otago | -1.29 | -1.45 | 0.20 |
| Taranaki | -3.68 | -3.89 | 0.20 |
| Southland | -5.25 | -5.85 | 0.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | -6.08 | -5.47 | -0.60 |
| Northland | -9.09 | -8.22 | -0.90 |
| Manawatu | -9.45 | -10.32 | 0.90 |
| North Harbour | -9.93 | -9.77 | -0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 14 | 9 – 9 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Southland vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 15 | 34 – 23 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Otago vs. North Harbour | Aug 16 | 28 – 14 | 12.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Aug 16 | 48 – 9 | 17.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Aug 16 | 25 – 37 | 15.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 17 | 35 – 15 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Northland vs. Manawatu | Aug 17 | 23 – 28 | 6.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Southland | Aug 21 | Southland | -0.70 |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Canterbury | Aug 22 | Canterbury | -14.90 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki | Aug 22 | Hawke’s Bay | 9.40 |
| 4 | Northland vs. Wellington | Aug 23 | Wellington | -13.30 |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Otago | Aug 23 | Counties Manukau | 7.50 |
| 6 | Manawatu vs. Auckland | Aug 24 | Auckland | -8.80 |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman | Aug 24 | Tasman | -8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Just seen your site and round 2 predictions. 6 out of 7 correct is pretty impressive…..how about upcoming round 3?!
10 years ago
No more predictions for this year’s ITM ?
Too bad, i was expecting them.
10 years ago
Round 3 was published August 28, round 4 on September 2 and I am just preparing round 5 predictions. Not sure how you missed rounds 3 and 4, but they should be under the category “Sports statistics”
10 years ago