NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 9.79 | 5.82 | 4.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.07 | 9.10 | -0.00 |
| Warriors | 6.94 | -0.72 | 7.70 |
| Roosters | 6.48 | 12.35 | -5.90 |
| Cowboys | 5.45 | 6.01 | -0.60 |
| Storm | 4.45 | 7.64 | -3.20 |
| Broncos | 0.92 | -4.69 | 5.60 |
| Panthers | 0.91 | -2.48 | 3.40 |
| Bulldogs | -1.70 | 2.46 | -4.20 |
| Dragons | -1.84 | -7.57 | 5.70 |
| Knights | -3.61 | 5.23 | -8.80 |
| Titans | -5.63 | 1.45 | -7.10 |
| Eels | -6.41 | -18.45 | 12.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.33 | -11.26 | 2.90 |
| Raiders | -8.79 | -8.99 | 0.20 |
| Sharks | -9.50 | 2.32 | -11.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | Aug 01 | 16 – 4 | 12.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 01 | 16 – 22 | 3.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Eels | Aug 02 | 12 – 32 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Aug 02 | 28 – 8 | 14.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Aug 02 | 30 – 22 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Aug 03 | 18 – 54 | -6.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Aug 03 | 50 – 10 | 13.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Aug 04 | 6 – 28 | -5.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 08 | Rabbitohs | 5.20 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Aug 08 | Broncos | 7.10 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 09 | Cowboys | 18.30 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Storm | Aug 09 | Storm | -3.60 |
| 5 | Eels vs. Raiders | Aug 09 | Eels | 6.90 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Aug 10 | Warriors | 20.90 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Aug 10 | Dragons | 1.80 |
| 8 | Roosters vs. Titans | Aug 11 | Roosters | 16.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, Great work.
How hard would this be to apply to the NFL?
10 years ago
Not hard once the past data has been obtained and arranged in the required format
10 years ago