Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Note that new teams are given a rating of -10. This is somewhat arbitrary, but has proved reasonably satisfactory in predicting Super Rugby games.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 5.09 | 5.09 | 0.00 |
| Western Province | 3.43 | 3.43 | -0.00 |
| Cheetahs | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Lions | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Blue Bulls | -0.74 | -0.74 | 0.00 |
| Griquas | -7.49 | -7.49 | 0.00 |
| Kings | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Pumas | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings vs. Western Province | Aug 08 | Western Province | -8.40 |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Sharks | Aug 09 | Sharks | -7.60 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Blue Bulls | Aug 09 | Lions | 5.80 |
| 4 | Pumas vs. Cheetahs | Aug 09 | Cheetahs | -5.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can this predictions be forwarded to my email every week and a bit more detail as to the workings of this
10 years ago
There’s a link to the methodology. You can subscribe to the blog either by email or RSS, but we don’t have a rugby-only feed.
10 years ago
I’ve noticed that the scores you pick as the margin generally are lower than the actual margin.
Just an observation from the super rugby. I should actually go through the predictions and scores to compare properly.
10 years ago
That’s probably right. If you think of the prediction as the ‘average’ value and the actual result as the average plus unpredictable factors, then the actual results will vary more than the predictions do. Since the margin can’t be less than zero, that’s going to make the observed margin larger than the predicted margin.
[On top of that, it could also be that the predictions are too conservative]
10 years ago
Where can i read predictions for 2015 Super 15 Rugby please
10 years ago
They will be posted here, but possibly not until Thursday morning
10 years ago
Thank you for the service – can’t wait!
10 years ago
HI David, Rugby world cup round 2 starts tomorrow 23 Sept 2015. Are you going to post the predictions?
9 years ago