NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 9.18 | 9.10 | 0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.48 | 5.82 | 1.70 |
| Roosters | 7.09 | 12.35 | -5.30 |
| Cowboys | 4.89 | 6.01 | -1.10 |
| Warriors | 4.38 | -0.72 | 5.10 |
| Storm | 2.94 | 7.64 | -4.70 |
| Broncos | 0.81 | -4.69 | 5.50 |
| Panthers | -0.02 | -2.48 | 2.50 |
| Bulldogs | -0.76 | 2.46 | -3.20 |
| Knights | -1.30 | 5.23 | -6.50 |
| Dragons | -2.44 | -7.57 | 5.10 |
| Titans | -5.06 | 1.45 | -6.50 |
| Raiders | -6.23 | -8.99 | 2.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.81 | -11.26 | 4.50 |
| Sharks | -7.26 | 2.32 | -9.60 |
| Eels | -8.66 | -18.45 | 9.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Roosters | Jul 25 | 16 – 12 | -5.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Storm | Jul 25 | 8 – 30 | 7.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Jul 26 | 16 – 18 | 14.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Eels | Jul 26 | 18 – 24 | 11.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Jul 26 | 12 – 20 | 0.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 27 | 12 – 22 | 1.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Jul 27 | 12 – 28 | 3.60 | FALSE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 28 | 18 – 34 | -7.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | Aug 01 | Sea Eagles | 12.90 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 01 | Bulldogs | 3.80 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Eels | Aug 02 | Sharks | 5.90 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Aug 02 | Cowboys | 14.50 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Dragons | Aug 02 | Roosters | 14.00 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Aug 03 | Warriors | -6.10 |
| 7 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Aug 03 | Rabbitohs | 13.30 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Aug 04 | Storm | -5.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »