Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals
Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waratahs | 9.66 | 1.67 | 8.00 |
| Crusaders | 8.78 | 8.80 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 5.92 | 4.57 | 1.40 |
| Brumbies | 2.97 | 4.12 | -1.10 |
| Hurricanes | 2.89 | -1.44 | 4.30 |
| Bulls | 2.88 | 4.87 | -2.00 |
| Chiefs | 2.02 | 4.38 | -2.40 |
| Stormers | 1.68 | 4.38 | -2.70 |
| Blues | 1.44 | -1.92 | 3.40 |
| Highlanders | -3.12 | -4.48 | 1.40 |
| Lions | -3.39 | -6.93 | 3.50 |
| Force | -4.67 | -5.37 | 0.70 |
| Reds | -4.98 | 0.58 | -5.60 |
| Cheetahs | -5.55 | 0.12 | -5.70 |
| Rebels | -9.53 | -6.36 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Jul 11 | 8 – 11 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Force | Jul 11 | 47 – 25 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bulls vs. Rebels | Jul 11 | 40 – 7 | 14.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jul 12 | 34 – 8 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Jul 12 | 3 – 34 | -9.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Jul 12 | 60 – 25 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Jul 12 | 10 – 29 | 0.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Qualifying Finals
Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brumbies vs. Chiefs | Jul 19 | Brumbies | 5.00 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Highlanders | Jul 19 | Sharks | 13.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »