July 3, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.09 12.35 -3.30
Rabbitohs 7.67 5.82 1.90
Sea Eagles 7.35 9.10 -1.70
Cowboys 3.63 6.01 -2.40
Warriors 3.11 -0.72 3.80
Broncos 2.43 -4.69 7.10
Panthers 1.72 -2.48 4.20
Bulldogs 1.71 2.46 -0.80
Storm 0.40 7.64 -7.20
Knights -1.29 5.23 -6.50
Dragons -4.68 -7.57 2.90
Titans -5.41 1.45 -6.90
Wests Tigers -5.41 -11.26 5.90
Eels -6.44 -18.45 12.00
Raiders -7.04 -8.99 2.00
Sharks -8.63 2.32 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jun 27 24 – 16 1.50 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 27 22 – 24 19.30 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 28 19 – 18 7.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jun 28 20 – 18 0.00 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 29 30 – 20 4.80 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Knights Jun 29 10 – 16 0.70 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 30 24 – 12 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 04 Sea Eagles -1.10
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 05 Cowboys -3.80
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 05 Roosters 22.20
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 06 Panthers -2.60
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jul 07 Rabbitohs 17.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »