NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 9.74 | 12.35 | -2.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.89 | 5.82 | 2.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 6.70 | 9.10 | -2.40 |
| Broncos | 4.31 | -4.69 | 9.00 |
| Cowboys | 3.41 | 6.01 | -2.60 |
| Warriors | 2.59 | -0.72 | 3.30 |
| Panthers | 2.25 | -2.48 | 4.70 |
| Storm | 1.81 | 7.64 | -5.80 |
| Bulldogs | 1.71 | 2.46 | -0.80 |
| Knights | -1.95 | 5.23 | -7.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.77 | -11.26 | 6.50 |
| Titans | -5.41 | 1.45 | -6.90 |
| Eels | -5.78 | -18.45 | 12.70 |
| Dragons | -6.09 | -7.57 | 1.50 |
| Raiders | -7.68 | -8.99 | 1.30 |
| Sharks | -10.52 | 2.32 | -12.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 110 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Jun 20 | 14 – 22 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 21 | 19 – 10 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 21 | 0 – 26 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Eels | Jun 22 | 46 – 20 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Dragons | Jun 22 | 18 – 19 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Jun 23 | 36 – 28 | -2.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Jun 27 | Sea Eagles | 1.50 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Jun 27 | Broncos | 19.30 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 28 | Wests Tigers | 7.40 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 28 | Cowboys | 0.00 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Panthers | Jun 29 | Warriors | 4.80 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Knights | Jun 29 | Eels | 0.70 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Storm | Jun 30 | Storm | -3.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »