NRL Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 9.78 | 12.35 | -2.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 7.28 | 5.82 | 1.50 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.23 | 9.10 | -3.90 |
| Broncos | 5.07 | -4.69 | 9.80 |
| Cowboys | 4.44 | 6.01 | -1.60 |
| Bulldogs | 3.42 | 2.46 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 3.36 | -2.48 | 5.80 |
| Warriors | 1.83 | -0.72 | 2.50 |
| Storm | -0.19 | 7.64 | -7.80 |
| Knights | -3.02 | 5.23 | -8.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.16 | -11.26 | 7.10 |
| Titans | -4.20 | 1.45 | -5.70 |
| Eels | -6.36 | -18.45 | 12.10 |
| Raiders | -7.27 | -8.99 | 1.70 |
| Dragons | -7.94 | -7.57 | -0.40 |
| Sharks | -9.04 | 2.32 | -11.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 99 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Jun 06 | 32 – 10 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Jun 06 | 18 – 16 | -8.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Titans vs. Panthers | Jun 07 | 14 – 36 | 1.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Jun 07 | 30 – 0 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Jun 07 | 34 – 18 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 08 | 20 – 23 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Roosters | Jun 08 | 12 – 32 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Jun 09 | 4 – 26 | -4.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 13 | Rabbitohs | 15.90 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Dragons | Jun 14 | Panthers | 15.80 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Knights | Jun 14 | Roosters | 17.30 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Jun 15 | Bulldogs | 14.30 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Storm | Jun 16 | Titans | 0.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »