NRL Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8.74 | 12.35 | -3.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.88 | 5.82 | 1.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.77 | 9.10 | -3.30 |
| Bulldogs | 5.12 | 2.46 | 2.70 |
| Cowboys | 3.92 | 6.01 | -2.10 |
| Storm | 2.90 | 7.64 | -4.70 |
| Warriors | 1.33 | -0.72 | 2.00 |
| Broncos | 1.26 | -4.69 | 5.90 |
| Panthers | -0.09 | -2.48 | 2.40 |
| Knights | -0.77 | 5.23 | -6.00 |
| Titans | -2.18 | 1.45 | -3.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.17 | -11.26 | 6.10 |
| Eels | -5.91 | -18.45 | 12.50 |
| Raiders | -6.26 | -8.99 | 2.70 |
| Sharks | -6.52 | 2.32 | -8.80 |
| Dragons | -10.80 | -7.57 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 85 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | May 23 | 12 – 32 | 5.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Warriors | May 24 | 16 – 24 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | May 24 | 14 – 16 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | May 25 | 42 – 12 | -12.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | May 26 | 0 – 18 | -6.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Eels | May 30 | Panthers | 10.30 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Raiders | May 31 | Roosters | 19.50 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | May 31 | Cowboys | 5.50 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Knights | Jun 01 | Warriors | 6.60 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 01 | Sea Eagles | -0.00 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Jun 02 | Rabbitohs | 22.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »