May 21, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.51 8.80 -0.30
Sharks 6.00 4.57 1.40
Chiefs 4.59 4.38 0.20
Waratahs 3.95 1.67 2.30
Brumbies 3.75 4.12 -0.40
Bulls 2.70 4.87 -2.20
Hurricanes 1.56 -1.44 3.00
Stormers -0.21 4.38 -4.60
Blues -0.45 -1.92 1.50
Highlanders -1.66 -4.48 2.80
Force -2.40 -5.37 3.00
Cheetahs -2.93 0.12 -3.10
Reds -4.54 0.58 -5.10
Rebels -4.80 -6.36 1.60
Lions -7.07 -6.93 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 16 16 – 18 6.90 FALSE
2 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 17 25 – 30 8.10 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Rebels May 17 27 – 30 3.60 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Force May 17 24 – 8 4.80 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies May 17 27 – 21 -3.90 FALSE
6 Waratahs vs. Lions May 18 41 – 13 13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Sharks May 23 Sharks -2.50
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 23 Waratahs -6.30
3 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 24 Crusaders -7.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 24 Chiefs -0.50
5 Force vs. Lions May 24 Force 8.70
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 24 Stormers 5.20
7 Bulls vs. Brumbies May 24 Bulls 2.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    T.A McPherson

    Those blimmin Chiefs aye? What’s wrong with them this year?

    11 years ago