May 21, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 7.44 6.01 1.40
Bulldogs 7.32 2.46 4.90
Roosters 6.54 12.35 -5.80
Rabbitohs 5.83 5.82 0.00
Sea Eagles 5.77 9.10 -3.30
Storm 2.90 7.64 -4.70
Broncos 1.24 -4.69 5.90
Warriors 0.28 -0.72 1.00
Panthers -0.09 -2.48 2.40
Knights -0.77 5.23 -6.00
Titans -1.13 1.45 -2.60
Wests Tigers -5.15 -11.26 6.10
Sharks -5.47 2.32 -7.80
Eels -5.91 -18.45 12.50
Raiders -9.79 -8.99 -0.80
Dragons -10.80 -7.57 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 16 14 – 27 11.70 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Titans May 16 22 – 8 5.20 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Dragons May 17 36 – 0 4.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers May 17 20 – 22 5.70 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Roosters May 17 42 – 10 -0.00 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Panthers May 18 20 – 26 -4.90 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 18 16 – 12 13.30 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 19 15 – 14 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 23 Bulldogs 5.30
2 Titans vs. Warriors May 24 Titans 3.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos May 24 Broncos -1.90
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 25 Cowboys -12.70
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 26 Rabbitohs -6.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »