NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8.71 | 12.35 | -3.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 7.52 | 9.10 | -1.60 |
| Bulldogs | 6.08 | 2.46 | 3.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.03 | 5.82 | 0.20 |
| Cowboys | 4.19 | 6.01 | -1.80 |
| Titans | 1.67 | 1.45 | 0.20 |
| Broncos | 0.92 | -4.69 | 5.60 |
| Knights | 0.63 | 5.23 | -4.60 |
| Storm | 0.15 | 7.64 | -7.50 |
| Panthers | -2.77 | -2.48 | -0.30 |
| Sharks | -2.85 | 2.32 | -5.20 |
| Warriors | -3.50 | -0.72 | -2.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.35 | -11.26 | 5.90 |
| Dragons | -5.95 | -7.57 | 1.60 |
| Raiders | -6.78 | -8.99 | 2.20 |
| Eels | -10.50 | -18.45 | 8.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 14 – 34 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | 10 – 16 | 11.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 26 – 28 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 26 | 24 – 20 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Apr 26 | 42 – 14 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Apr 26 | 16 – 12 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 27 | 54 – 18 | 15.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Apr 27 | 6 – 22 | 0.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | May 09 | Roosters | 18.60 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | May 09 | Cowboys | 7.80 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Raiders | May 10 | Warriors | 7.80 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Rabbitohs | May 10 | Titans | 0.10 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 10 | Sea Eagles | -2.90 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Panthers | May 11 | Knights | 7.90 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | May 11 | Bulldogs | -7.50 |
| 8 | Eels vs. Sharks | May 12 | Sharks | -3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
help with NRL tips for 2014 all through the year
11 years ago