April 24, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 7.28 4.57 2.70
Crusaders 7.24 8.80 -1.60
Chiefs 4.07 4.38 -0.30
Brumbies 4.06 4.12 -0.10
Waratahs 3.37 1.67 1.70
Bulls 2.68 4.87 -2.20
Hurricanes 1.41 -1.44 2.80
Stormers 1.09 4.38 -3.30
Reds -0.84 0.58 -1.40
Blues -2.23 -1.92 -0.30
Force -2.85 -5.37 2.50
Highlanders -3.83 -4.48 0.70
Cheetahs -4.05 0.12 -4.20
Rebels -4.77 -6.36 1.60
Lions -5.65 -6.93 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Apr 18 39 – 20 4.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Force Apr 18 22 – 16 -0.20 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 19 17 – 18 -0.60 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls Apr 19 19 – 12 4.30 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 19 19 – 8 14.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Apr 19 18 – 3 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 25 Waratahs -1.60
2 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 25 Brumbies 4.00
3 Sharks vs. Highlanders Apr 25 Sharks 15.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Reds Apr 26 Hurricanes 6.30
5 Force vs. Bulls Apr 26 Bulls -1.50
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Apr 26 Stormers -2.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »