NRL Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 7.58 | 12.35 | -4.80 |
| Bulldogs | 6.81 | 2.46 | 4.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.83 | 5.82 | 0.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.67 | 9.10 | -3.40 |
| Cowboys | 3.17 | 6.01 | -2.80 |
| Storm | 1.71 | 7.64 | -5.90 |
| Broncos | 1.12 | -4.69 | 5.80 |
| Titans | 0.17 | 1.45 | -1.30 |
| Knights | -0.10 | 5.23 | -5.30 |
| Sharks | -2.77 | 2.32 | -5.10 |
| Panthers | -2.84 | -2.48 | -0.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.86 | -11.26 | 7.40 |
| Dragons | -4.82 | -7.57 | 2.80 |
| Raiders | -4.93 | -8.99 | 4.10 |
| Warriors | -5.06 | -0.72 | -4.30 |
| Eels | -9.47 | -18.45 | 9.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Apr 18 | 14 – 15 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Broncos | Apr 18 | 6 – 32 | 9.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys | Apr 18 | 26 – 21 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | Apr 19 | 20 – 10 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Apr 19 | 18 – 24 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | Apr 20 | 24 – 22 | -3.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 21 | 18 – 21 | -0.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Titans | Apr 21 | 14 – 12 | 1.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | Roosters | -7.90 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | Storm | 11.30 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | Rabbitohs | -0.20 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 26 | Sharks | 4.60 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Apr 26 | Cowboys | 17.10 |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Apr 26 | Bulldogs | 11.40 |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 27 | Sea Eagles | 15.10 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Apr 27 | Wests Tigers | 0.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Please are you sure that your tips will corrrct?? Am trust on you and i go on with you on my tipping so when you got wrong im also in the sam trick..by kamenzii K.Pau New Guinea Grade 4 boy..
11 years ago
I am afraid it is a case of all care, no responsibility. Or as is used in other situations, if you have a complaint, remember what you paid for it (in this case, what you paid for the tips I provide).
11 years ago