April 2, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.04 12.35 -2.30
Sea Eagles 7.46 9.10 -1.60
Bulldogs 5.96 2.46 3.50
Storm 4.26 7.64 -3.40
Rabbitohs 3.70 5.82 -2.10
Knights 3.68 5.23 -1.50
Cowboys 2.49 6.01 -3.50
Broncos -0.06 -4.69 4.60
Titans -0.45 1.45 -1.90
Panthers -1.49 -2.48 1.00
Warriors -2.62 -0.72 -1.90
Sharks -4.35 2.32 -6.70
Raiders -4.46 -8.99 4.50
Dragons -5.00 -7.57 2.60
Wests Tigers -8.05 -11.26 3.20
Eels -12.89 -18.45 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 43.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 0 – 8 10.40 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Mar 28 20 – 36 3.00 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Mar 29 42 – 18 6.80 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 29 32 – 16 -11.70 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 29 40 – 12 1.60 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Mar 30 18 – 30 17.70 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Sharks Mar 30 30 – 0 8.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Mar 31 13 – 12 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Apr 04 Roosters 8.60
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 04 Broncos 17.30
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 05 Sharks 2.80
4 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 05 Panthers 7.50
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 05 Rabbitohs -4.20
6 Storm vs. Titans Apr 06 Storm 9.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 06 Sea Eagles -11.00
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Apr 07 Cowboys 3.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »