NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.68 | 12.35 | -0.70 |
| Storm | 6.54 | 7.64 | -1.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.24 | 5.82 | 0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.81 | 9.10 | -3.30 |
| Bulldogs | 3.68 | 2.46 | 1.20 |
| Cowboys | 2.39 | 6.01 | -3.60 |
| Knights | 1.81 | 5.23 | -3.40 |
| Panthers | 0.89 | -2.48 | 3.40 |
| Titans | -0.35 | 1.45 | -1.80 |
| Broncos | -1.76 | -4.69 | 2.90 |
| Sharks | -2.48 | 2.32 | -4.80 |
| Dragons | -3.31 | -7.57 | 4.30 |
| Warriors | -4.17 | -0.72 | -3.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -6.50 | -11.26 | 4.80 |
| Raiders | -7.00 | -8.99 | 2.00 |
| Eels | -15.28 | -18.45 | 3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 41.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 21 | 25 – 16 | -12.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Mar 21 | 26 – 30 | -10.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Mar 22 | 18 – 16 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Mar 22 | 12 – 14 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Mar 22 | 16 – 20 | 14.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Mar 23 | 22 – 18 | 30.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 23 | 12 – 24 | 0.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Knights | Mar 24 | 28 – 24 | 10.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 28 | Roosters | 10.40 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Broncos | Mar 28 | Dragons | 3.00 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 29 | Warriors | 6.80 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Panthers | Mar 29 | Panthers | -11.70 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Storm | Mar 29 | Bulldogs | 1.60 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | Mar 30 | Rabbitohs | 17.70 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Sharks | Mar 30 | Knights | 8.80 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Mar 31 | Titans | 1.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »