Revised Super 15 Predictions for Round 6
I had a mistake in my code so that the country assigned to the Sharks was incorrect so the previously posted prediction for the Bulls versus Sharks game was wrongly calculated. I now have the Sharks to win by 0.10 point.
All the other predictions for the round are unchanged.
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 6.52 | 4.57 | 2.00 |
| Crusaders | 6.07 | 8.80 | -2.70 |
| Chiefs | 5.30 | 4.38 | 0.90 |
| Brumbies | 4.19 | 4.12 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | 3.92 | 4.87 | -1.00 |
| Waratahs | 3.65 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Stormers | 1.95 | 4.38 | -2.40 |
| Hurricanes | -0.22 | -1.44 | 1.20 |
| Reds | -0.28 | 0.58 | -0.90 |
| Blues | -1.90 | -1.92 | 0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -3.35 | 0.12 | -3.50 |
| Highlanders | -3.85 | -4.48 | 0.60 |
| Lions | -4.15 | -6.93 | 2.80 |
| Force | -4.65 | -5.37 | 0.70 |
| Rebels | -6.20 | -6.36 | 0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 29 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Stormers | Mar 14 | 36 – 20 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Crusaders | Mar 14 | 19 – 25 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs | Mar 15 | 60 – 27 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Force | Mar 15 | 29 – 31 | 5.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Mar 15 | 28 – 23 | 2.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Blues | Mar 15 | 39 – 36 | 1.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Reds | Mar 15 | 26 – 6 | 7.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Hurricanes | Mar 21 | Hurricanes | -1.10 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Rebels | Mar 21 | Waratahs | 12.40 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Cheetahs | Mar 22 | Blues | 5.40 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Stormers | Mar 22 | Brumbies | 6.20 |
| 5 | Force vs. Chiefs | Mar 22 | Chiefs | -5.90 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Reds | Mar 22 | Lions | 0.10 |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Mar 22 | Sharks | -0.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Good day David
Please can yoy explain your scores for the super 15 I am not sure how the scores are working especisly with the .10
Regards
11 years ago
The prediction is simply the home team rating minus the away team rating plus the home ground advantage. A positive value means a win to the home team, negative a win to the away team. The prediction is an estimate of the points difference, so a value of 0.10 means the match is pretty even: I can hardly separate the two teams playing on that ground.
11 years ago