Super 15 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 6.27 | 8.80 | -2.50 |
| Sharks | 5.75 | 4.57 | 1.20 |
| Chiefs | 4.67 | 4.38 | 0.30 |
| Brumbies | 4.02 | 4.12 | -0.10 |
| Bulls | 3.92 | 4.87 | -1.00 |
| Waratahs | 3.82 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
| Stormers | 2.58 | 4.38 | -1.80 |
| Reds | 0.49 | 0.58 | -0.10 |
| Cheetahs | -1.68 | 0.12 | -1.80 |
| Blues | -1.79 | -1.92 | 0.10 |
| Hurricanes | -1.89 | -1.44 | -0.50 |
| Highlanders | -3.34 | -4.48 | 1.10 |
| Lions | -4.26 | -6.93 | 2.70 |
| Force | -5.16 | -5.37 | 0.20 |
| Rebels | -6.40 | -6.36 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Mar 07 | 21- 29 | -1.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Cheetahs | Mar 07 | 43 – 33 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Stormers | Mar 08 | 14 – 13 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Force vs. Rebels | Mar 08 | 32 – 7 | 0.9 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Blues | Mar 08 | 38 – 22 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Lions | Mar 08 | 37 – 23 | 14.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Stormers | Mar 14 | Chiefs | 6.10 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Crusaders | Mar 14 | Crusaders | -8.70 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs | Mar 15 | Hurricanes | 3.80 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Force | Mar 15 | Highlanders | 5.80 |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Mar 15 | Brumbies | 2.70 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Blues | Mar 15 | Lions | 1.50 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Reds | Mar 15 | Sharks | 7.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi Mate,
I’ve watched your predictions all through last year and this – why is it that your predicitions often differ from the other pick websites and sometimes even the TAB and yet are more often correct?
I often have my own ides about who is going to win a game (for my picks) but if I se eyou’ve backed another team I’ll normally change.
Thanks mate. Especially the Force pick last week, no one else had them!
11 years ago
I just apply a statistical method and have no idea of other people’s predictions. I don’t apply any subjective judgement to change my predictions. I do look at them and see how I feel about my predictions, but I don’t ever modify them.
11 years ago
Hi David. Congratulations on your 100% correct predictions for Round 4. It looks to me like you are giving a 4 point home ground advantage. How did you arrive at 4 points? Through trial and error? Regards. Willem
11 years ago
Almost right. I have different home ground advantage when both teams are from the same country.
11 years ago