Super 15 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
My predictions are early this week and may not appear next week unless I can get some internet access while travelling.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 6.77 | 8.80 | -2.00 |
| Sharks | 5.76 | 4.57 | 1.20 |
| Chiefs | 4.67 | 4.38 | 0.30 |
| Waratahs | 3.82 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
| Brumbies | 3.56 | 4.12 | -0.60 |
| Bulls | 3.44 | 4.87 | -1.40 |
| Stormers | 2.08 | 4.38 | -2.30 |
| Reds | 0.18 | 0.58 | -0.40 |
| Blues | -1.32 | -1.92 | 0.60 |
| Cheetahs | -1.38 | 0.12 | -1.50 |
| Hurricanes | -1.43 | -1.44 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | -3.34 | -4.48 | 1.10 |
| Lions | -4.26 | -6.93 | 2.70 |
| Rebels | -5.00 | -6.36 | 1.40 |
| Force | -6.56 | -5.37 | -1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Feb 28 | 35 – 24 | -7.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Cheetahs | Feb 28 | 35 – 14 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Hurricanes | Feb 28 | 19 – 18 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Mar 01 | 21 – 19 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Mar 01 | 32 – 5 | 3.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Force vs. Brumbies | Mar 01 | 14 – 27 | -6.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Lions | Mar 01 | 25 – 17 | 10.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Mar 07 | Brumbies | -1.00 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Cheetahs | Mar 07 | Reds | 5.60 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Stormers | Mar 08 | Crusaders | 8.70 |
| 4 | Force vs. Rebels | Mar 08 | Force | 0.90 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Blues | Mar 08 | Bulls | 8.80 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Lions | Mar 08 | Sharks | 14.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Congratulations! 6 out of 6. Brumbies and Force were against the odds – well done. Sure hope you’ll be able to post round 5.
11 years ago
well done matey, 6 out of 6!
11 years ago
Great work to get 6 from 6 last week. I look forward to your next posts.
A point of interest – will your statistical selections become even more accurate as the current information and previous results of this seasons games are put into the equation?
11 years ago
The main way the predictions might improve is if a team has substantially improved or deteriorated between seasons. Then my ratings might take a few weeks to catch up.
11 years ago