Super 15 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.80 | 8.80 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 5.36 | 4.57 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | 4.38 | 4.38 | -0.00 |
| Chiefs | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 |
| Brumbies | 4.12 | 4.12 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | 4.08 | 4.87 | -0.80 |
| Waratahs | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Reds | 0.58 | 0.58 | -0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -0.54 | 0.12 | -0.70 |
| Hurricanes | -1.44 | -1.44 | -0.00 |
| Blues | -1.92 | -1.92 | -0.00 |
| Highlanders | -4.48 | -4.48 | 0.00 |
| Force | -5.37 | -5.37 | -0.00 |
| Lions | -6.27 | -6.93 | 0.70 |
| Rebels | -6.36 | -6.36 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which was correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Feb 15 | 20 – 21 | 9.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Feb 15 | 31 – 16 | 2.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Feb 21 | Crusaders | 6.90 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Bulls | Feb 21 | Bulls | -2.10 |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Blues | Feb 22 | Blues | -0.10 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Feb 22 | Brumbies | 6.00 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Hurricanes | Feb 22 | Sharks | 10.80 |
| 6 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 22 | Stormers | -8.10 |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Force | Feb 23 | Waratahs | 9.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Looks interesting and let`s see how the long season pans out.
Good luck !
11 years ago
How do I read the predictions column ?
What does 9.6 or -2.1 mean ?
Regards
Jim
11 years ago
9.6 is the number of points the home team is expected to win by, -2.1 means the away team is expected to win by 2.1 points
11 years ago
Looks really interesting. I want to consider teams’ penalty conceded propensity for my predictions for my tipping game but I can find a website with penalties conceded per team. Do you know of one where I can get it?
Cheers
Willem
11 years ago
I don’t know of anywhere you can find that sort of detail. Maybe the club statisticians keep it for individual clubs. Contact the statistician at your local Super 15 franchise?
11 years ago
Are you going to be putting in your predictions for each round?
11 years ago
Yes. I have done so for a couple of years now. Also, predictions for NRL, ITM Cup and Currie Cup.
11 years ago