January 23, 2014

Onward and upward

This graph (from Clark Williams-Derry via Andrew Gelman) shows US national traffic forecasts over time (the straight lines) and the reality (the black line)

VMT-C-P-chart-big1-541x550

 

 

Initially, the straight-line extrapolation would have made sense, but for the past five years or so it’s been increasingly obvious that it’s bogus.   Some of the fall off from expectations is due to the US recession, but people in the US seem to just be driving less than forecast.

It would be interesting to see this sort of graph for NZ data.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »

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