Posts from October 2013 (67)

• (Lots) more on the Nobel Prize for Econ, by Dan Davies “So, the Fama/Shiller/Hansen prize, or as the vast majority of comment has it, the prize for “Fama, Shiller and that other guy”. What does it say about the state of economics? I think it encapsulates everything good and bad about the subject.”
• The Herald is treating its clicky webpage poll as headline news again. We’ve seen how inaccurate these polls can be.
• At bit.ly, a real-time map of click-throughs to various media sources (US only, sadly)

From the Medical Journal of Australia

Accurate health journalism helps Australian consumers make informed choices by exposing fraudulent or exaggerated claims about health products and services, by informing them about effective products and services, and by countering disease mongering. A well informed public is also vital to the proper functioning of a modern democracy; and in democratic countries like Australia where the state is a major funder of health services, it is particularly important that the public have accurate information…

While some health reporting in the mainstream media undeniably fails the test of accuracy, it has also been shown that reports about health interventions in the less sensationalist newspapers are more accurate and complete than reports in other media, including online news outlets.

Substitute as necessary for NZ.

(via @vincristine)

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

There is a problem with the code I have been using for assessing performance, due to the unusual schedule in the ITM Cup, where some teams play more than one game in a week. I haven’t had time to alter the code so am omitting this section for the time being. Look at last week’s post to see how the predictions went. For the record, there were 6 games correct, out of 8 games played last week

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

Here are the team ratings prior to the SemiFinals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• Eric Crampton discusses a Gallup poll in the US which thinks >20% of the population is gay
• At NBR, Horizon polling claims to have predicted the Auckland election most accurately. At least, after they changed which one of their numbers was supposed to be the prediction.  Basically, everyone got the winner right, and getting accurate results has to be pretty much luck given this is only the second election ever for mayor of the supercity.
• From The Civilian, a nice send-up of bogus polls: “Stewart Island to be renamed Harry Styles as a result of online poll”
• Census population counts for areas are now out.  Auckland is bigger. ChCh is only very slightly smaller, and Canterbury is bigger.

Q: There isn’t a Nobel Prize for Mathematics, is there?

A: No

Q: I’ve heard that was because Nobel’s wife was having an affair with a prominent mathematician. Is that true?

A: Almost certainly not

Q: How can you be sure?

A: Various reasons. For a start, Nobel wasn’t married.

Q: Oh. Is there a Nobel Prize for Statistics?

A: No.

Q: Why not?

A: Various reasons. For a start, statistics hadn’t really been invented in 1895, when Nobel died.

Q: Do statisticians ever win Nobel Prizes?

A: Yes and no.

Q: How is that not a simple “yes” or “no”?

A: The Sverige Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has often been given for statistical research. Opinions vary on whether this is a ‘real’ Nobel Prize.

Q: Can you explain how to pronounce that?

A: No.

Q: When was the most recent time it was given for statistics research?

A: Yesterday, to Lars Peter Hansen (together with two other people for non-statistical research)

Q: Can you explain in simple terms what he did?

A: I could try, but Jeff Leek at Simply Statistics has already done a reasonable job

While Ruatara Paapu’s entry was the only nomination last week in our Stat of the Week competition, it is still a worthy winner.

Auckland Councillor Cameron Brown put out a press release entitled: “68% percent [sic] of Aucklanders wanted berm mowing continued”.

However, this statistic is rather misleading – it’s 68% of those who made a submission on berm mowing, not 68% of Aucklanders.

Congratulations Rutara and keep those nominations coming in!

• Mashblock displays the publicly-available Census 2006 data right down to the individual meshblock level 
• The ‘reputation’ component of university rankings seems to favour institutions in cities that people have heard of
• Useful discussion of the Global Innovation Index in the Herald, featuring Shaun Hendy (who now works in the same building as us). I don’t know if the brain drain explanation is true, but it’s the right sort of way to use the data.
• Big Data graphics: cascades of retweeting related to NY Times articles, and click-throughs to the original article

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

• Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday October 18 2013.
• Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
• The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of October 12 – 18 2013 inclusive.
• Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

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If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!