ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals
Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals
Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 21.49 | 23.14 | -1.70 |
| Wellington | 11.49 | 6.93 | 4.60 |
| Auckland | 8.57 | 9.02 | -0.50 |
| Tasman | 4.99 | -6.29 | 11.30 |
| Counties Manukau | 4.65 | 4.36 | 0.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 0.28 | -6.72 | 7.00 |
| Waikato | -0.32 | 5.25 | -5.60 |
| Otago | -2.10 | -4.44 | 2.30 |
| Taranaki | -3.53 | 3.92 | -7.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | -5.56 | -1.96 | -3.60 |
| Southland | -8.36 | -11.86 | 3.50 |
| Northland | -10.45 | -8.26 | -2.20 |
| North Harbour | -11.70 | -7.43 | -4.30 |
| Manawatu | -12.74 | -8.97 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
There is a problem with the code I have been using for assessing performance, due to the unusual schedule in the ITM Cup, where some teams play more than one game in a week. I haven’t had time to alter the code so am omitting this section for the time being. Look at last week’s post to see how the predictions went. For the record, there were 6 games correct, out of 8 games played last week
Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals
Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 18 | Wellington | 11.30 |
| 2 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Oct 19 | Canterbury | 17.40 |
| 3 | Tasman vs. Southland | Oct 19 | Tasman | 17.90 |
| 4 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 20 | Otago | 2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »